Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe0f3…9fea crypto 1522 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,456 (-22%) realized −$1,456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%80W / 1725L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day48.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$100
14 days−$158
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$440
other 15% −$221
finance 12% −$102
world 8% +$39
politics 6% −$2
tech 5% −$200
crypto 5% −$91
sports 4% −$121
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-81.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 -97.1% -97.4% 1% 0% -31.1%
≤30d 452 -78.6% -80.7% 7% 4% -18.0%
≤90d 1805 -79.9% -81.8% 4% 3% -29.1%
all 1805 -79.9% -81.8% 4% 3% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -81.8% 3% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -83.5% 2% -35.9%
15% -85.1% 1% -42.1%
20% -86.6% 1% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses80 / 1725
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1805 / 1522
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day48.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1805 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? No 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election by 10–15%? No 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? BUY No 6¢ $1 15m
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff ele BUY No 6¢ $1 18m
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? SELL Yes 91¢ $45 1h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $1 1h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 6¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $3 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 SELL No 4¢ $2 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY No 7¢ $4 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $46 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $46 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? SELL No 7¢ $1 6h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 7¢ $1 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $46 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 91¢ $46 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 SELL No 6¢ $0 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY No 7¢ $0 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY No 7¢ $0 6h
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs The Soulless Team (+1.5) BUY The Soulless Team 0¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.15 · official $2.15 (match) · 3500 history records