Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E0 0xe0f1…c4bd world 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60,465 (+31%) realized +$57,128 · open +$3,337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate66%119W / 61L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$736per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$66,776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$5,986
finance 13% +$25
other 10% +$2,136
politics 5% +$97
crypto 2% +$29
sports 1% +$181
economics 1% +$1,338
tech 1% +$723
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.2% -30.5% 56% 33% -33.8%
≤30d 48 +9.8% -0.7% 73% 42% +0.5%
≤90d 180 +7.4% -2.8% 66% 38% -3.0%
all 180 +7.4% -2.8% 66% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 38% -3.0%
10% -12.1% 29% -12.3%
15% ← realistic here -20.6% 17% -20.7%
20% -28.4% 15% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$699) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$193 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$66,776
Realized+$57,128
Unrealized+$3,337
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses119 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions99
Markets (closed)180 / 262
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$736
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 98¢ $5,168 $6,077 +$909 (+18%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $5,349 $5,754 +$405 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 70¢ 89¢ $3,033 $3,872 +$839 (+28%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $3,615 $3,586 −$29 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 44¢ $4,752 $3,585 −$1,167 (-25%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $2,569 $3,270 +$701 (+27%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 66¢ 98¢ $1,898 $2,818 +$920 (+48%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $2,421 $2,458 +$37 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,174 $2,236 +$62 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $1,761 $2,113 +$351 (+20%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $1,792 $1,906 +$114 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? No 86¢ 80¢ $1,972 $1,843 −$130 (-7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 69¢ 100¢ $964 $1,394 +$431 (+45%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 22¢ $2,593 $1,334 −$1,259 (-49%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,212 $1,295 +$83 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 96¢ $1,116 $1,243 +$127 (+11%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,174 $1,222 +$48 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 78¢ $1,111 $1,209 +$98 (+9%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $987 $1,143 +$156 (+16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 69¢ 99¢ $718 $1,028 +$310 (+43%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 63¢ 92¢ $693 $1,009 +$317 (+46%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 80¢ 82¢ $969 $995 +$27 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 67¢ $1,081 $995 −$86 (-8%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $920 $990 +$70 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? No 63¢ 52¢ $940 $770 −$170 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Jun 25 $182 +$98 +54%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $214 +$9 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $1,310 −$369 -28%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 22 $116 +$27 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 22 $519 −$518 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $206 −$202 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $395 +$124 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 20 $157 +$11 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $304 +$96 +32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $207 +$51 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,727 −$62 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $259 +$61 +24%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $160 −$70 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 15 $292 −$94 -32%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $356 +$438 +123%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $273 −$48 -18%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 14 $292 +$559 +191%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $186 +$3 +2%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $133 +$15 +11%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $216 +$508 +235%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $929 +$78 +8%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $1,280 +$64 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $183 +$113 +62%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 08 $208 +$362 +174%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$5 -34%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,971 +$29 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 03 $920 +$266 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $892 +$315 +35%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $266 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $190 +$10 +5%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $196 +$23 +12%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31? Jun 01 $270 +$12 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2,711 +$251 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by May 31? Jun 01 $631 +$18 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $683 +$119 +17%
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,053 +$41 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $2,086 +$359 +17%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $131 +$69 +53%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $163 +$57 +35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $3,490 +$107 +3%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 30 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? May 26 $44 +$22 +50%
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? May 26 $568 +$175 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $35 1h
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $68 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $35 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $25 2h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $146 2h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $166 2h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL No 86¢ $43 3h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $87 4h
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $140 4h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $75 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $127 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $128 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $70 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $138 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $131 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $200 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,775.58 · official $66,776.04 (match) · 3500 history records