Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E0 0xe0ee…9836 weather 677 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,636 (+2%) realized +$1,639 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate79%529W / 141L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$26
weather 34% −$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -3.1% -12.3% 77% 5% -9.7%
≤30d 172 -1.9% -11.2% 74% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 431 -6.6% -15.5% 71% 16% -11.9%
all 670 -3.7% -12.8% 79% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 11% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 5% -18.9%
15% -28.8% 3% -26.7%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$24 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$1,639
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses529 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)670 / 677
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 670 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? No 91¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $312 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $303 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $298 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $147 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $298 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $394 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $493 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $127 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $215 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $107 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $27 −$8 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $38 −$9 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $27 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 −$9 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $7 22m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 28m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.50 · official $122.50 (match) · 3500 history records