Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e8…ca50 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$484 (-10%) realized −$484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$1,008
sports 5% −$210
crypto 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -15.3% -23.4% 3% 3% -32.8%
≤30d 33 -15.3% -23.4% 3% 3% -32.8%
≤90d 33 -15.3% -23.4% 3% 3% -32.8%
all 33 -15.3% -23.4% 3% 3% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 3% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.7% 0% -39.2%
15% -37.4% 0% -45.1%
20% -43.5% 0% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$38 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $2,786 −$768 -28%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $151 −$11 -8%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 −$4 -10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $22 −$3 -12%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 15 $578 −$158 -27%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $549 −$30 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 −$3 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $213 −$207 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -72%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 14 $46 −$12 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $24 −$3 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$4 -7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$3 -5%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 09 $0 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 45¢ $89 45m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $2 45m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 36¢ $330 45m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 30¢ $19 46m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 45¢ $54 46m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $3 47m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 25¢ $1 47m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 25¢ $16 48m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 26¢ $1 48m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 26¢ $1 49m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 26¢ $9 49m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 27¢ $5 49m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 27¢ $7 50m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 40¢ $9 50m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 43¢ $310 51m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 44¢ $6 51m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 45¢ $272 52m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $17 52m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $101 53m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 47¢ $3 53m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $218 56m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $195 56m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $423 56m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $380 56m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $218 57m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $195 57m
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 55¢ $195 57m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records