Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e4…d702 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-3%) realized −$61 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%61W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$30
14 days−$16
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$153
sports 31% +$59
crypto 1% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -8.4% -17.2% 56% 53% -12.1%
≤30d 108 +7.0% -3.2% 56% 54% -13.6%
≤90d 108 +7.0% -3.2% 56% 54% -13.6%
all 108 +7.0% -3.2% 56% 54% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 54% -13.6%
10% -12.5% 49% -21.9%
15% -20.9% 37% -29.4%
20% -28.7% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses61 / 47
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage18d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 −$1 -7%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $33 +$15 +47%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $10 +$6 +58%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$16 -77%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 −$13 -62%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +68%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$30 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$18 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$8 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 $0 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$17 -33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$20 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$13 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 −$29 -57%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $70 +$19 +28%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$12 +25%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -94%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $60 +$21 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$15 -74%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$18 -60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 96¢ $57 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $10 20h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 20h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $30 20h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 37h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 37h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 38h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 38h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 38h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 60¢ $44 38h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 40h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.93 · official $38.93 (match) · 251 history records