Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0e3…adef world 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days−$1
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$18
other 16% +$7
politics 2% +$1
crypto 1% +$3
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
finance 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 12% -9.0%
≤30d 30 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 34 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 6% -9.6%
all 85 +2.6% -7.1% 47% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -24.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage464d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $88 +$2 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $178 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $54 +$8 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $60 −$3 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $207 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $169 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $324 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $476 +$6 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $420 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $313 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $357 −$16 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $148 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $151 −$2 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $159 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $5 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $155 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $46 +$2 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $321 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $319 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $147 +$13 +9%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $161 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $1,257 −$6 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $58 −$18 -31%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon apologize to Trump by Monday? Jun 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 11 $13 $0 -1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $102 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $102 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $177 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $178 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $60 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $63 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $61 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $58 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $118 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $60 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records