Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0dd…8f8e world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$7
other 26% −$1
sports 18% −$7
politics 13% −$2
economics 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.7% -8.0% 20% 10% -9.3%
≤30d 26 -3.8% -13.0% 15% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 71 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 1% -9.7%
all 81 -5.0% -14.1% 31% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 1% -10.0%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage532d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $11 +$2 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $54 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 −$3 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $59 −$3 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $163 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $109 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $34 −$2 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $36 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $33 +$2 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $33 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $176 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 40h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $13 44h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $11 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $14 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $26 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records