trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +6.2% | -3.9% | 75% | 50% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +6.9% | -3.3% | 64% | 45% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +6.9% | -3.3% | 64% | 45% | -8.6% |
| all | 14 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 64% | 36% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.0% | 36% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -19.5% | 14% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -27.3% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $103 | $103 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 87¢ | $77 | $75 | −$2 (-2%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? | Jun 20 | $25 | +$7 | +29% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $96 | −$27 | -28% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $90 | +$21 | +23% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | Jun 04 | $4 | +$1 | +18% |
| Penguins vs. Rangers | Feb 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |