Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0db…f44e sports 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30,733 (+3%) realized +$19,329 · open +$11,404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%176W / 152L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,212per market
Trades / day75.9pace
Fees−$9,166est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$94,858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$15,502
other 36% +$4,229
politics 1% +$1,336
crypto 0% +$2,940
world 0% +$2,565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -19.7% -27.4% 40% 40% -31.6%
≤30d 243 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 53% -12.3%
≤90d 328 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 53% -10.9%
all 328 +1.6% -8.1% 54% 53% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 53% -10.9%
10% -16.9% 53% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 47% -27.2%
20% -32.3% 41% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$3,641) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,522 vs −$3,024 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$94,858
Realized+$19,329
Unrealized+$11,404
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses176 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$9,166
Open positions24
Markets (closed)328 / 343
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$3,212
Trades / day75.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $15,532 $16,569 +$1,037 (+7%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $15,205 $15,215 +$10 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $12,464 $15,028 +$2,565 (+21%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 76¢ $1,330 $7,554 +$6,224 (+468%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $6,000 $6,188 +$188 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $4,550 $4,815 +$265 (+6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $4,500 $4,812 +$312 (+7%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 79¢ 80¢ $4,740 $4,770 +$30 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $4,250 $4,225 −$25 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 65¢ 66¢ $3,900 $3,930 +$30 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $1,980 $2,010 +$30 (+2%)
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $1,691 $1,766 +$75 (+4%)
Another Canada election called by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $1,256 $1,671 +$414 (+33%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $380 $1,575 +$1,195 (+314%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,092 $1,125 +$33 (+3%)
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $683 $711 +$28 (+4%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $959 $709 −$250 (-26%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 24¢ $1,363 $661 −$702 (-52%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $618 $525 −$93 (-15%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No 76¢ 66¢ $375 $323 −$52 (-14%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 42¢ $232 $299 +$67 (+29%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $272 $292 +$20 (+7%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 41¢ 42¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 93¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,334 −$1,334 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,925 −$2,880 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,060 +$2,940 +96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2,745 +$3,255 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,940 −$2,940 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $3,105 −$105 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,534 +$1,466 +32%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4,680 +$1,320 +28%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,504 +$3,496 +140%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $4,680 +$1,320 +28%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,805 −$2,760 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,460 +$3,540 +144%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2,820 +$3,180 +113%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $2,602 +$821 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $3,881 −$3,840 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,168 +$4,832 +414%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,504 +$3,496 +140%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,745 −$2,700 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,560 +$1,440 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,762 −$3,720 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,985 −$2,940 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,740 +$1,260 +27%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,584 +$2,416 +67%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4,415 −$4,380 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3,000 +$3,000 +100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $639 −$639 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $3,240 −$3,240 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $1,825 +$456 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3,881 +$2,119 +55%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 12 $2,220 +$3,780 +170%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2,504 −$2,460 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7,602 −$7,560 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2,564 −$2,520 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,899 −$1,860 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3,045 −$3,000 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $3,060 +$2,940 +96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 10 $3,641 −$3,641 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $2,684 −$2,684 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 09 $3,881 −$3,840 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $3,120 +$2,880 +92%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $1,561 +$4,439 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $1,487 18m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $90 18m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $183 20m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $90 21m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $6 21m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $47 21m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $6 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $90 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $17 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $36 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $90 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $36 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $17 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $10 22m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $180 23m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $17 26m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $4 26m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $71 26m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $180 26m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $25 27m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $87 27m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $107 27m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $90 28m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $64 29m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $52 29m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $34 30m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $79 30m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $71 30m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $54 30m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 79¢ $36 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,857.60 · official $94,858.11 (match) · 3500 history records