Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E0 0xe0da…c8fe other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$320 (-7%) realized −$620 · open +$300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$721per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$2,550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$309
sports 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤30d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% -63.2%
≤90d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% -63.2%
all 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% -63.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 50% -63.2%
10% -40.4% 50% -66.7%
15% -46.2% 50% -69.9%
20% -51.4% 0% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$780 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,550
Realized−$620
Unrealized+$300
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$721
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,499 $1,839 +$340 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $609 $603 −$7 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $142 $109 −$34 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $780 −$780 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $144 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $303 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 48¢ $300 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $292 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,264 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $780 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,537 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,550.18 · official $2,550.18 (match) · 16 history records