Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0d8…625b other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1
sports 32% −$1
politics 18% −$3
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage180d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $212 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $212 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $212 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $213 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $213 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 02 $213 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jan 30 $215 −$2 -1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $204 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $203 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 19d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $103 29d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $103 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $103 38d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $103 39d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $103 44d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $103 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $103 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $103 54d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $104 71d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $104 72d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $212 88d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $212 89d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 96d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 96d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $212 102d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $212 102d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $212 104d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $212 104d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $212 107d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $212 107d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $212 108d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $212 109d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 114d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records