Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:14:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0d7…1314 sports 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$598 (-63%) realized −$594 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days−$299
30 days−$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$527
other 10% −$83
world 6% +$7
crypto 5% −$23
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.9% +1.3% 57% 57% -10.4%
≤30d 65 -41.9% -47.4% 29% 29% -72.5%
≤90d 65 -41.9% -47.4% 29% 29% -72.5%
all 65 -41.9% -47.4% 29% 29% -72.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.4% 29% -72.5%
10% ← realistic here -52.5% 28% -75.1%
15% -57.1% 23% -77.5%
20% -61.3% 20% -79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$594
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 46
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)65 / 75
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 75¢ 66¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 81¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 85¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+153%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 65¢ 26¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-59%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 65¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $7 +$13 +187%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +179%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +29%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$2 +60%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$2 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 +$2 +57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $31 +$41 +135%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $77 −$77 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $53 −$7 -13%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $19 −$1 -8%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $1 +$1 +140%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 15m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 20m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 21m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 31m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 32m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 36m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 38m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 38m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 18h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 27h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $1 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.12 · official $36.69 (match) · 751 history records