Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0d3…2667 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-18%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$32
sports 20% +$4
world 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.0% -17.6% 37% 37% -26.1%
≤30d 20 -13.5% -21.8% 35% 35% -28.2%
≤90d 20 -13.5% -21.8% 35% 35% -28.2%
all 20 -13.5% -21.8% 35% 35% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 35% -28.2%
10% -29.3% 30% -35.1%
15% -36.1% 30% -41.3%
20% -42.4% 15% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage19d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $24 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY EVOS 51¢ $5 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.71 · official $27.71 (match) · 36 history records