Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E0 0xe0cc…a77c other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$127 (-11%) realized −$127 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$24

7 days+$24

14 days−$58

30 days−$58

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+47.8%	+33.7%	100%	100%	+33.7%
≤30d	6	-20.0%	-27.6%	50%	50%	-26.5%
≤90d	9	-4.7%	-13.7%	56%	56%	-21.6%
all	20	+0.4%	-9.2%	60%	55%	-20.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.2%	55%	-20.9%
10%	-17.9%	50%	-28.5%
15%	-25.8%	45%	-35.4%
20%	-33.1%	30%	-41.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$55 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage

Net worth$128

Realized−$127

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 25

History coverage239d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	52¢	50¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$8	$9	+$1 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	+$24	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 04	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Jun 04	$25	+$15	+62%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jun 04	$80	+$56	+70%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 04	$34	−$34	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	Jun 04	$80	−$80	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 05	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	May 05	$50	+$16	+32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	May 05	$51	+$74	+146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25?	Feb 25	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?	Feb 25	$28	+$14	+49%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-17?	Feb 25	$50	+$8	+16%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?	Feb 25	$30	+$37	+122%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Dec 08	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?	Dec 08	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?	Dec 08	$160	$0	+0%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	Dec 08	$8	+$9	+113%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26?	Dec 08	$25	+$10	+41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04?	Nov 04	$50	−$50	-100%
Aspinall vs. Gane	Nov 04	$40	+$43	+108%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	3¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN	BUY	30¢	$26	19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	93¢	$40	12d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	61¢	$34	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-04?	BUY Yes	83¢	$80	12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$9	18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$80	18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	24¢	$102	42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	61¢	$25	42d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	75¢	$50	69d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	BUY No	52¢	$20	111d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25?	BUY Yes	75¢	$100	111d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?	BUY Yes	45¢	$30	119d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?	BUY Yes	67¢	$28	119d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-17?	BUY No	86¢	$50	119d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC	37¢	$5	190d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	62¢	$30	190d
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?	SELL No	99¢	$160	190d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)	BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC	47¢	$8	202d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26?	BUY Yes	71¢	$25	202d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04?	BUY Yes	39¢	$50	224d
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?	BUY No	99¢	$160	239d
Aspinall vs. Gane	BUY Gane	24¢	$40	239d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.12 · official $158.12 · 37 history records