Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0c1…7eda other 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$150 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate73%132W / 48L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$667
14 days+$1,114
30 days+$1,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$39
other 19% −$29
weather 15% +$1,010
politics 12% +$207
finance 10% −$243
sports 6% −$81
crypto 3% +$15
economics 1% −$27
culture 1% −$220
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.5% -2.7% 91% 26% -4.0%
≤30d 54 -0.9% -10.4% 70% 20% -5.1%
≤90d 180 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 10% -8.9%
all 180 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 10% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 6% -17.6%
15% -28.7% 4% -25.6%
20% -35.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$536) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$38 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$4,894
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses132 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions12
Markets (closed)180 / 192
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$465
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 27? No 93¢ 100¢ $2,276 $2,440 +$164 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 28? No 86¢ 93¢ $685 $744 +$59 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 29? No 86¢ 87¢ $575 $579 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 29? No 92¢ 91¢ $476 $473 −$3 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $296 $216 −$79 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 29? No 98¢ 98¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $109 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $56 $52 −$4 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 27? No 97¢ 100¢ $44 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $55 $43 −$13 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 28? No 94¢ 100¢ $39 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $42 $32 −$10 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 27 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 27 $211 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 27 $220 +$83 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 27 $440 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 26 $344 +$111 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 26 $386 +$35 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $901 +$97 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on June 2 Jun 25 $568 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 25 $606 +$46 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 24 $282 +$40 +14%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 24 $1,807 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 23 $196 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 23 $886 +$150 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 23 $518 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 23 $568 −$27 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 22 $638 +$107 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 22 $202 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 21 $320 +$18 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 21 $1,157 −$84 -7%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $291 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 20 $207 +$142 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $142 +$12 +8%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 19 $10 −$2 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $58 −$18 -31%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $524 +$90 +17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $117 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $553 −$49 -9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $171 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $255 +$101 +40%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $988 +$146 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $298 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $49 +$18 +36%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $393 +$1 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $58 −$4 -7%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 06 $197 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 05 $905 +$7 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 03 $1,502 +$34 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $3,412 −$2 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $595 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 91¢ $13 5m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $139 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 91¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 91¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $86 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 85¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 85¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 85¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $180 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $145 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 92¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 98¢ $118 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 90¢ $90 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 91¢ $91 10h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $400 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 93¢ $17 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,893.86 · official $4,892.88 (match) · 3500 history records