Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E0 0xe0c1…601e sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-8%) realized −$133 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%74W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$99
14 days−$121
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$116
other 16% −$20
politics 4% +$2
world 2% +$4
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -51.3% -55.9% 35% 26% -41.5%
≤30d 130 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 53% -17.3%
≤90d 130 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 53% -17.3%
all 130 -9.6% -18.2% 57% 53% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 53% -17.3%
10% -26.0% 40% -25.2%
15% -33.2% 29% -32.4%
20% -39.7% 22% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses74 / 56
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)130 / 136
History coverage20d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 Over 31¢ 42¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Under 95¢ 67¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 27 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$9 +62%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $10 −$8 -81%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +40%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$7 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$7 -71%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 172.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 30m
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 31m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 88¢ $16 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 16h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 16h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 17h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 28¢ $10 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 32¢ $4 20h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $20 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY 27¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Toby Samuel 77¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 71¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $9 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 9d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 9d
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 76¢ $10 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 39¢ $10 10d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.42 · official $61.56 · 275 history records