Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E0 0xe0bf…d7fe world 17 markets active 3h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$40,186 (-26%) realized −$18,806 · open −$21,380
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,266per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34,313
7 days−$34,288
14 days−$33,302
30 days−$19,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% −$41,217
politics 6% −$71
other 2% +$101
finance 1% +$73
tech 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.5% -38.9% 67% 0% -94.8%
≤30d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 12% -26.0%
≤90d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 12% -26.0%
all 16 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 12% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 12% -26.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 12% -33.1%
15% -24.5% 6% -39.5%
20% -31.9% 6% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,048 vs −$17,192 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$18,806
Unrealized−$21,380
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage29d
Avg bet$9,266
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 17¢ $21,574 $194 −$21,380 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34,354 −$34,313 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1,012 +$19 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $1,005 +$6 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $20,000 +$986 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24,411 +$8,186 +34%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House May 29 $9,995 −$71 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $7,475 +$5,157 +69%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $1,000 +$9 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 24 $1,000 +$11 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 23 $1,003 +$58 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 23 $501 +$12 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 23 $490 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $3,102 +$112 +4%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $1,003 +$53 +5%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $1,002 +$41 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $42 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $41 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $502 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $377 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $160 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $653 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $423 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $120 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $76 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 93¢ $35 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10,000 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10,000 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,012 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $1,011 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $28,368 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28,368 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5,986 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10,000 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5,000 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20,986 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12,597 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20,000 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32,597 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2,511 19d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 81¢ $2,510 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2,316 20d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL No 81¢ $2,316 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $12,632 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.55 · official $193.55 (match) · 91 history records