Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe0be…b0a3 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+5%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$26
other 23% −$1
sports 8% +$9
weather 7% $0
politics 5% +$32
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 +5.0% -5.0% 45% 9% -5.2%
≤90d 18 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 6% -6.4%
all 38 +4.3% -5.7% 50% 8% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 8% -5.2%
10% -14.7% 8% -14.3%
15% -22.9% 8% -22.6%
20% -30.5% 8% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.13 per $1 lost it wins $12.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage488d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $103 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $87 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $70 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $41 +$24 +59%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $48 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $47 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $47 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 29 $49 $0 -1%
Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $52 $0 -1%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 20 $52 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on March 19? Mar 20 $51 +$1 +1%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 16 $52 $0 -1%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 06 $18 +$32 +178%
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Mercyhurst Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $2 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $28 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $62 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $30 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $24 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $16 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $70 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $51 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records