Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0be…4949 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$473 (+25%) realized +$496 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$280
sports 42% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +38.6% +25.4% 46% 46% +8.9%
≤30d 41 +38.6% +25.4% 46% 46% +8.9%
≤90d 41 +38.6% +25.4% 46% 46% +8.9%
all 41 +38.6% +25.4% 46% 46% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.4% 46% +8.9%
10% ← realistic here +13.4% 46% -1.5%
15% +2.5% 46% -11.0%
20% -7.6% 46% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +72% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$45 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$496
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 20¢ 8¢ $37 $14 −$23 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$89 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $67 +$63 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$99 -96%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $77 +$112 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$161 +408%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$52 +108%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$51 +104%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $41 +$59 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$30 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$71 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $82 +$118 +144%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $31 +$76 +249%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $93 −$92 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$29 -95%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh Jun 25 $50 +$75 +149%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$53 +114%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $31 +$63 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$68 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $51 +$60 +119%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Moez Echargui Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $45 +$55 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $49 +$51 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $12 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $60 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $23 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $32 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $17 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 17m
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner SELL Evil Geniuses Academy 98¢ $130 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $103 28m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 98¢ $103 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.72 · official $28.35 · 136 history records