trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -15.6% | -23.7% | 50% | 50% | -62.6% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -14.6% | -22.7% | 40% | 40% | -58.6% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -14.6% | -22.7% | 40% | 40% | -58.6% |
| all | 13 | -43.6% | -49.0% | 23% | 23% | -51.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -49.0% | 23% | -51.0% |
| 10% | -53.9% | 23% | -55.7% |
| 15% | -58.3% | 8% | -60.0% |
| 20% | -62.4% | 8% | -63.9% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $483 | +$517 | +107% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $77 | +$23 | +31% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 14 | $1,532 | −$1,500 | -98% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $611 | −$600 | -98% |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | May 30 | $265 | −$28 | -10% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Mar 06 | $25 | +$8 | +30% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 04 | $180 | −$180 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 27 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Feb 27 | $311 | −$101 | -32% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 27 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 24 | $1,009 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | Feb 23 | $310 | −$184 | -59% |
| Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | Feb 23 | $399 | −$110 | -28% |