Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E0 0xe0b8…15a7 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 107L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$10
politics 33% −$8
sports 7% +$56
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 +0.4% -9.2% 6% 4% -9.5%
all 118 +1.1% -8.5% 9% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 7% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 2.4141908607893945% → late -0.12073962221760753% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×13.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage110d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Wizards vs. Magic Wizards 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Heat Heat 40¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mavericks 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Suns vs. Magic Suns 47¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Rockets Knicks 52¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Hawks Warriors 25¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mavericks 24¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $248 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $138 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $130 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $373 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $345 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $299 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $607 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $398 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $96 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $394 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $130 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $147 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $289 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $125 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $14 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $14 20h
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $144 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $144 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $111 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $111 20d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $142 20d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 21d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $138 22d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $138 23d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $148 24d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $148 24d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $130 24d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $130 25d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $149 25d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $149 26d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $143 26d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $143 26d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $124 26d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $124 27d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $132 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 361 history records