Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0b4…3865 sports 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-6%) realized −$71 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$25
14 days−$30
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$111
other 35% −$162
crypto 4% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -20.6% -28.1% 32% 32% -12.0%
≤30d 58 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 36% -12.6%
≤90d 58 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 36% -12.6%
all 58 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 36% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 36% -12.6%
10% -19.7% 31% -21.0%
15% -27.4% 31% -28.6%
20% -34.5% 29% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 66
History coverage30d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $35 +$26 +73%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $34 +$27 +81%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 27 $19 −$2 -10%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$84 +165%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 +$3 +20%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $79 +$28 +36%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 +$37 +250%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $105 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +147%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $68 −$36 -53%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 +$5 +14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 −$8 -74%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -53%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 21 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $13 +$33 +262%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$49 +192%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 +$12 +307%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -69%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $4 +$7 +188%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$8 +198%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$18 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $36 17m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $17 12h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 31¢ $17 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $16 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $16 19h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 27h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 27h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $19 27h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 32h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 32h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $16 32h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $116 33h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $21 35h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 46¢ $21 35h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $1 42h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $17 46h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $17 46h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $56 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $79 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $10 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.42 · official $34.42 (match) · 130 history records