Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0b2…8103 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-5%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$24
sports 30% −$41
crypto 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.8% -0.7% 58% 58% -16.0%
≤30d 26 +9.8% -0.7% 58% 58% -16.0%
≤90d 26 +9.8% -0.7% 58% 58% -16.0%
all 26 +9.8% -0.7% 58% 58% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 58% -16.0%
10% -10.2% 54% -24.0%
15% -18.9% 46% -31.3%
20% -26.8% 27% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $15 +$5 +36%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$14 +41%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$11 +414%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 16h
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 16h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $5 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 17h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 19h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 19h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $7 46h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
England to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.53 · official $65.53 (match) · 46 history records