Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0b0…b73e sports 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%20W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$5
other 19% −$5
politics 17% −$2
economics 11% −$3
crypto 10% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 214 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses20 / 194
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage169d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $36 −$1 -4%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $129 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $403 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $136 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 9h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $35 7d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $36 7d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 19d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 19d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $44 33d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $45 33d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $31 106d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $31 106d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 106d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 106d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 106d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 106d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $33 106d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $33 106d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $32 106d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $32 106d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $43 106d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $43 106d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $34 106d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $34 106d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $40 106d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $40 106d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $38 106d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 97¢ $38 106d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 106d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 106d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $43 106d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $43 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 810 history records