Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0b0…5294 sports 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,358 (-5%) realized −$2,312 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%63W / 99L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Fees−$882est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$927
7 days−$1,746
14 days−$2,500
30 days−$2,901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,674
other 4% −$142
crypto 0% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 29% -26.3%
≤30d 162 +0.1% -9.4% 39% 30% -15.5%
≤90d 162 +0.1% -9.4% 39% 30% -15.5%
all 162 +0.1% -9.4% 39% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 30% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 25% -23.6%
15% -26.0% 20% -31.0%
20% -33.3% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$110 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,312
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses63 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$882
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage22d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Alvaro Guillen Meza 57¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $234 −$134 -57%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $102 +$38 +37%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$40 -69%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $245 +$78 +32%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $177 −$140 -79%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $50 −$50 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $66 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $110 −$63 -57%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $170 −$58 -34%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $1,055 −$239 -23%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $296 −$231 -78%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $97 −$49 -50%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $98 +$32 +33%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $325 −$41 -12%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $104 +$96 +92%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $92 −$41 -45%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $229 +$31 +13%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 13 $172 −$145 -84%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $98 +$62 +64%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $97 +$85 +88%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $91 +$332 +365%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $395 −$190 -48%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $259 −$79 -31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $131 −$105 -80%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $96 −$39 -41%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $87 +$213 +245%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $101 −$40 -39%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $360 −$20 -6%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $180 −$125 -69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $96 +$24 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $263 +$46 +18%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 11 $339 −$224 -66%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 11 $147 −$147 -100%
Bratislava: Tiago Pereira vs Andrej Martin Jun 11 $192 −$110 -57%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 11 $262 −$227 -87%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $203 +$21 +10%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $109 +$90 +82%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $169 +$9 +5%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $135 +$106 +79%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $130 −$42 -32%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $107 +$23 +22%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $51 +$2 +3%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Jan Choinski Jun 10 $379 −$3 -1%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $110 +$17 +16%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $211 +$13 +6%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $246 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 57¢ $46 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 42¢ $36 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 44¢ $10 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 57¢ $64 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 44¢ $52 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Alvaro Guillen Meza 50¢ $11 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 71¢ $100 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 28¢ $101 2h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 51¢ $3 4h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 51¢ $82 5h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 51¢ $12 5h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 51¢ $78 6h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 51¢ $12 6h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Bruno Fernandez 27¢ $49 14h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 70¢ $132 14h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Bruno Fernandez 34¢ $51 14h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 68¢ $99 14h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 68¢ $3 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $57 15h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 73¢ $83 16h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 73¢ $12 16h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 73¢ $7 16h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 95¢ $7 18h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Elise Mertens 75¢ $239 18h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 19¢ $37 18h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 88¢ $177 18h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 38¢ $50 21h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Maya Joint 92¢ $51 21h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 30¢ $17 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 927 history records