Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe0ad…683f sports 661 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,709 (+1%) realized +$1,693 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%350W / 309L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1,318est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$890
7 days+$795
14 days+$2,088
30 days+$4,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,626
world 0% −$380
other 0% −$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +20.6% +9.1% 63% 63% +21.3%
≤30d 106 +31.4% +18.9% 55% 54% +5.0%
≤90d 307 +13.7% +2.9% 52% 51% -7.6%
all 659 +5.8% -4.2% 53% 52% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 52% -8.8%
10% -13.4% 52% -17.5%
15% -21.8% 50% -25.5%
20% -29.4% 43% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$232 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$1,693
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses350 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,318
Open positions2
Markets (closed)659 / 661
History coverage231d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Elise Mertens 53¢ 56¢ $270 $288 +$18 (+7%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Linda Noskova 58¢ 57¢ $199 $197 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 261 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $248 +$160 +64%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $152 +$166 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $144 −$142 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $100 +$93 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $201 +$100 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $142 +$155 +109%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $63 +$75 +118%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $684 +$377 +55%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $92 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $98 +$42 +43%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $86 +$63 +73%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $101 +$84 +83%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $132 −$131 -99%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $137 −$5 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $77 +$60 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $222 −$142 -64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $102 +$120 +118%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $415 +$292 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $196 +$219 +112%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $264 −$260 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $247 +$212 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $299 −$194 -65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $290 −$285 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 +$283 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $304 +$251 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $255 +$341 +134%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $198 +$265 +134%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $502 −$171 -34%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $162 +$98 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $320 +$547 +171%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $386 −$52 -13%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $688 +$19 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $592 +$571 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $904 −$24 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $190 +$139 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $381 +$198 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $321 −$314 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $287 −$283 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $298 −$294 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $278 +$211 +76%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $267 −$144 -54%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $296 +$254 +86%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $130 +$235 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 58¢ $201 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 53¢ $274 15h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $408 17h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $319 19h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 47¢ $152 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $248 27h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $144 36h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $194 37h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 51¢ $100 37h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 100¢ $301 37h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $201 38h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 45¢ $97 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $298 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $142 42h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $138 43h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $63 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $963 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $585 47h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 49¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 59¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $49 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 39¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $49 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $0 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $149 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 57¢ $86 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $185 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.88 · official $484.93 (match) · 1236 history records