trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $8 | $0 | −$8 (-100%) |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $48 | −$3 | -6% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$2 | -23% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $52 | −$20 | -40% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $8 | −$8 | -97% |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in June? | Jun 10 | $720 | −$14 | -2% |
| Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? | Jan 25 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 | Dec 01 | $8 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Nov 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | -23% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -45.0% | -50.3% | 0% | 0% | -16.1% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -45.0% | -50.3% | 0% | 0% | -16.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -45.0% | -50.3% | 0% | 0% | -16.1% |
| all | 15 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 47% | 0% | -15.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.5% | 0% | -15.9% |
| 10% | -33.6% | 0% | -24.0% |
| 15% | -40.0% | 0% | -31.3% |
| 20% | -45.9% | 0% | -38.0% |