Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0a8…2b6d crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,143 (-31%) realized −$1,095 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day65.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$504
other 24% −$591
sports 20% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -43.2% -48.6% 27% 19% -55.4%
≤30d 26 -43.2% -48.6% 27% 19% -55.4%
≤90d 26 -43.2% -48.6% 27% 19% -55.4%
all 26 -43.2% -48.6% 27% 19% -55.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.6% 19% -55.4%
10% ← realistic here -53.6% 12% -59.7%
15% -58.0% 8% -63.6%
20% -62.2% 4% -67.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$83 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1,095
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day65.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 8¢ 3¢ $83 $31 −$52 (-63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Up 56¢ 88¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $328 −$82 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$56 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $54 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $114 −$49 -43%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $213 −$37 -17%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $106 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $106 −$17 -16%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $370 −$174 -47%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $419 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $588 −$130 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $264 −$64 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $186 −$32 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$10 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$35 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$18 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $54 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $59 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $57 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $53 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $176 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $94 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 8¢ $80 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $89 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 8¢ $3 8h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $106 10h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $106 11h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.54 · official $41.54 (match) · 70 history records