trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 12% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 26 | -14.6% | -22.7% | 31% | 19% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.7% | 19% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -30.1% | 12% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -36.9% | 12% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -43.0% | 4% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 61¢ | 73¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+20%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 17 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Jun 17 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 07 | $111 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | May 07 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 07 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 14 | $182 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Apr 14 | $165 | −$1 | -1% |
| Bill Clinton charged by March 31? | Apr 11 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 25 | $556 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will The Studio win Best Producer of a TV Comedy Series at the 37th PG | Jan 30 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Will Dell say "Windows 10" during earnings call? | Oct 31 | $2 | −$1 | -59% |
| Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase? | Sep 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bolsonaro guilty? | Sep 18 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Aug 26 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| First round leader wins NYC Democratic primary? | Aug 02 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7PM ET | Jun 28 | $2 | −$2 | -76% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on February 21? | Jun 19 | $4 | +$2 | +43% |
| Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1? | Feb 20 | $3 | +$1 | +45% |
| Will 2024 be better than 2023? | Jan 05 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? | Nov 30 | $620 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Inter Miami win the 2024 MLS Cup? | Nov 27 | $4 | +$2 | +61% |
| Maduro out in 2024? | Oct 28 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Kamala Harris go on SNL? | Oct 28 | $2 | −$1 | -69% |
| Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Oct 04 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Katie Ledecky wins 2 gold medals? | Sep 02 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election? | Aug 04 | $143 | −$3 | -2% |