Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:50:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E0 0xe09c…a769 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,720 (+15%) realized +$4,720 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$1,127per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$579
14 days+$1,182
30 days+$1,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% +$5,617
world 6% −$1,702
other 4% +$453
sports 3% +$729
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +17.5% +6.3% 40% 40% +22.3%
≤30d 24 +43.8% +30.1% 46% 46% +43.8%
≤90d 26 +33.7% +21.0% 42% 42% -57.6%
all 28 +29.4% +17.1% 43% 43% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 43% +5.1%
10% +5.9% 43% -5.0%
15% -4.3% 43% -14.1%
20% -13.7% 36% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$982 vs −$418 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage310d
Avg bet$1,127
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$31 -62%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$354 +346%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$11 -22%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$141 +344%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$125 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 +$96 +312%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$168 +165%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$114 +223%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$348 +340%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$50 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Apr 19 $4,332 −$4,332 -100%
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? Apr 19 $999 −$745 -75%
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial elect Mar 23 $1,000 −$956 -96%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $23,209 +$9,950 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $456 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $441 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 47h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $165 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $450 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 8d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records