Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe09b…cfbc crypto 402 markets active 7d ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,990 (-13%) realized −$3,990 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%135W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,867
14 days−$2,743
30 days−$11,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,928
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -43.8% -49.2% 24% 24% -49.8%
≤30d 323 -41.2% -46.8% 20% 20% -52.3%
≤90d 356 -24.7% -31.9% 26% 25% -40.9%
all 402 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 33% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 33% -24.8%
10% -22.7% 33% -32.0%
15% -30.2% 32% -38.6%
20% -37.0% 30% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$72 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,990
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses135 / 267
Open positions0
Markets (closed)402 / 402
History coverage89d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 402 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $202 −$189 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $253 −$200 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $454 −$440 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $284 −$170 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$34 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $334 +$283 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$121 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $334 −$280 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $319 +$214 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $293 +$546 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$39 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $258 −$246 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $225 −$213 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $166 −$158 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $151 −$143 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $129 −$123 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $85 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $170 −$160 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $359 −$340 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $209 +$506 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $194 −$184 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $42 +$80 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$50 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $73 −$69 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $86 +$39 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $67 +$102 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $48 +$66 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 05 $131 −$124 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $95 −$88 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $23 +$25 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1502 history records