Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe094…11cd weather 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$391
7 days+$305
14 days−$119
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +54.0% +39.4% 50% 50% +90.7%
≤30d 58 -18.5% -26.3% 17% 16% -11.2%
≤90d 74 -14.0% -22.2% 23% 22% -9.8%
all 74 -14.0% -22.2% 23% 22% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 22% -9.8%
10% -29.7% 19% -18.5%
15% -36.5% 18% -26.3%
20% -42.7% 16% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$26 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage59d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $91 $105 +$14 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$207 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 +$184 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $82 −$81 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $81 −$79 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $256 +$75 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 −$46 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $82 −$59 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $64 +$284 +443%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 06 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2? Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? Jun 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? Jun 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? Jun 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? Jun 06 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $54 +$153 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 25? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 25? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 20? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 15? May 31 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 4? May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? May 31 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25? May 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 3? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25? May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 28? May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 29? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 25? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 5? May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 28? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 18? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 14? May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 20? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 20? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 12? May 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 22? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 24? May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $10 −$6 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $93 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $280 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.68 · official $104.68 (match) · 543 history records