Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe093…30b2 politics 51 markets active 3h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$8
politics 31% −$2
other 15% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
weather 3% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 25% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 16 -6.3% -15.2% 25% 0% -11.0%
all 50 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage321d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $46 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or UAE? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 10 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Augu Aug 10 $39 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $34 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $33 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $25 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $8 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $37 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $37 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $37 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 10¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.20 · official $34.20 (match) · 141 history records