Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe092…413f world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$4
sports 29% +$3
other 11% −$2
politics 1% −$12
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 24 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 35 -0.4% -9.9% 31% 3% -9.6%
all 42 -6.0% -14.9% 31% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 5% -10.1%
10% -23.1% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage531d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 37¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 36¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $23 −$7 -29%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $116 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $18 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $77 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $57 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $33 +$7 +22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $4 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $34 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $71 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $72 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $241 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $210 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $219 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $219 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $221 −$3 -1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $3 −$2 -69%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Feb 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 24 $1 $0 +6%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 23 $5 −$4 -84%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Jan 07 $12 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $30 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $17 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $13 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $2 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $32 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $17 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $31 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $2 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $15 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.37 · official $33.26 (match) · 149 history records