Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E0 0xe092…e1c7 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$214 (+12%) realized +$541 · open −$327
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$5
other 28% +$70
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.5% +2.7% 30% 30% +26.8%
≤30d 10 +13.5% +2.7% 30% 30% +26.8%
≤90d 10 +13.5% +2.7% 30% 30% +26.8%
all 10 +13.5% +2.7% 30% 30% +26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 30% +26.8%
10% -7.1% 20% +14.7%
15% -16.1% 20% +3.6%
20% -24.3% 20% -6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$27 · ×7.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$541
Unrealized−$327
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 38¢ 0¢ $328 $0 −$327 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$5 -5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $243 +$192 +79%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $69 −$67 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $49 +$316 +642%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $76 −$74 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $398 +$76 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 15¢ $28 51m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 76¢ $378 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $97 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $97 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $189 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $435 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 55¢ $243 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 1¢ $10 35h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 8¢ $31 35h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 0¢ $5 35h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 0¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 1¢ $5 35h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 9¢ $28 36h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 4¢ $21 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 69¢ $202 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 26¢ $51 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $365 2d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 13¢ $49 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $76 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $474 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $398 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.43 (match) · 29 history records