Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E0 0xe08f…ef55 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$396 (-13%) realized −$456 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,462now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$19
world 33% +$11
politics 12% −$374
finance 9% +$49
sports 7% −$30
crypto 2% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.2% -3.9% 62% 50% -5.7%
≤30d 9 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 56% -3.5%
≤90d 15 -26.9% -33.8% 47% 40% -37.2%
all 15 -26.9% -33.8% 47% 40% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 40% -37.2%
10% -40.2% 33% -43.2%
15% -46.0% 27% -48.7%
20% -51.3% 13% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$92 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,462
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)15 / 27
History coverage53d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 37¢ 43¢ $444 $516 +$72 (+16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $342 $342 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $175 $178 +$3 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $85 $92 +$7 (+8%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 52¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 74¢ 64¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-13%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$16 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $112 +$166 +148%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $191 +$18 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 −$30 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 02 $220 +$30 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $99 −$97 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $58 +$19 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $48 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $343 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $30 28h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $51 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $41 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $21 34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $209 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $177 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $17 34d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $68 34d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No $10 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,462.22 · official $1,462.22 (match) · 123 history records