Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe08b…ba08 crypto 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (416 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-3%) realized −$88 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate73%90W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day416.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$94
other 47% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (416 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 59% -11.5%
≤30d 124 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 59% -11.5%
≤90d 124 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 59% -11.5%
all 124 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 59% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover416.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 59% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 5% -20.0%
15% -29.9% 1% -27.7%
20% -36.8% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses90 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day416.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 0¢ 56¢ $0 $41 +$41 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$7 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$7 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$15 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$9 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$5 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$12 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$9 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$13 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$4 -25%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $56 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $63 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $56 7m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $63 12m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $56 13m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $56 15m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $36 16m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 16m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 16m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 16m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.88 · official $35.82 · 426 history records