Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe08a…2303 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 46L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$20
other 34% −$4
politics 13% −$15
sports 10% +$9
finance 2% +$32
economics 1% −$6
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 26 -0.0% -9.6% 31% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 41 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 5% -9.6%
all 81 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage484d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $220 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $202 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $154 −$3 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $118 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $222 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $327 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $106 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $104 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $197 −$3 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $162 +$32 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $21 −$3 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $12 −$2 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $5 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $83 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $168 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 19 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $83 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $257 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $84 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $933 +$7 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $931 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $40 −$6 -16%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $937 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $941 −$4 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $260 −$17 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $957 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $1,152 −$11 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 22 $0 $0 -50%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $1 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $104 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $103 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $103 15h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $103 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $103 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $104 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $98 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $97 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $96 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $118 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $118 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $31 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.06 · official $104.06 (match) · 265 history records