Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe089…ad3a other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,358 (-50%) realized −$863 · open −$495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days+$206
14 days−$836
30 days−$836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +162.5% +137.5% 12% 12% +3.4%
≤30d 27 -22.2% -29.6% 4% 4% -60.3%
≤90d 27 -22.2% -29.6% 4% 4% -60.3%
all 27 -22.2% -29.6% 4% 4% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 4% -60.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 4% -64.1%
15% -42.5% 4% -67.5%
20% -48.1% 4% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$821 vs −$64 · ×12.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized−$863
Unrealized−$495
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Open positions27
Markets (closed)27 / 54
History coverage11d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $111 $139 +$28 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $151 $90 −$61 (-40%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $146 $53 −$94 (-64%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $130 $48 −$82 (-63%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $68 $25 −$43 (-64%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $19 −$2 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+62%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $52 $14 −$38 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $14 −$8 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $14 $6 −$7 (-55%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $5 −$13 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $89 $2 −$87 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $26 $2 −$24 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $355 −$341 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $35 +$821 +2320%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $33 −$31 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $295 −$287 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $64 −$62 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $116 −$114 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $317 −$317 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $33 −$33 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 23m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 5h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $488.93 · official $488.93 (match) · 474 history records