Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe083…d0d5 sports 287 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-2%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%172W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$221
other 29% −$442
weather 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 62% -2.7%
≤30d 26 -10.7% -19.2% 58% 58% -17.6%
≤90d 230 -8.0% -16.7% 55% 53% -16.4%
all 286 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 58% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 58% -12.3%
10% -19.2% 48% -20.7%
15% -27.0% 33% -28.3%
20% -34.2% 15% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses172 / 114
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)286 / 287
History coverage105d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $33 +$17 +51%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 +$13 +43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $38 +$12 +30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$13 +41%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $62 +$30 +49%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 −$15 -76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 +$13 +43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$27 +52%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$13 +43%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $52 +$27 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 −$99 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $20 −$6 -28%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 −$19 -94%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $42 −$15 -35%
SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 May 03 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $41 −$35 -87%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 May 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $152 −$141 -93%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5 May 02 $41 +$22 +54%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5 May 02 $31 +$13 +41%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 May 02 $31 +$13 +43%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 May 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $40 +$16 +40%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $20 +$9 +46%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $61 −$60 -99%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 30 $40 +$20 +50%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $5 +$27 +518%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $31 +$76 +249%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $15 +$5 +33%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $40 −$29 -71%
Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $20 +$8 +43%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $28 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $62 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $21 10h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $5 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $31 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $31 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $38 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $31 33h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 36h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $31 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $31 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $11 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.23 · official $58.23 (match) · 694 history records