Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe07f…1074 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$155 (-11%) realized −$94 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$41
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$55
other 34% −$20
world 15% −$206
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 25% -0.8%
≤30d 8 +16.5% +5.4% 88% 50% +2.8%
≤90d 11 -6.2% -15.2% 64% 36% -20.8%
all 11 -6.2% -15.2% 64% 36% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 36% -20.8%
10% -23.3% 18% -28.4%
15% -30.7% 18% -35.3%
20% -37.5% 9% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$72 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage44d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $66 −$19 (-22%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $23 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $81 +$7 +8%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $79 +$11 +13%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 +$21 +36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $141 +$31 +22%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $120 +$100 +83%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $417 −$75 -18%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $31 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $88 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $86 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $79 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $59 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $58 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $53 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.67 · official $147.75 (match) · 210 history records