Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E0 0xe07d…b3f2 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,577 (-24%) realized −$1,786 · open +$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$951per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,437
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +18.5% +7.3% 80% 80% -36.1%
≤30d 5 +18.5% +7.3% 80% 80% -36.1%
≤90d 5 +18.5% +7.3% 80% 80% -36.1%
all 5 +18.5% +7.3% 80% 80% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 80% -36.1%
10% -3.0% 80% -42.2%
15% -12.4% 60% -47.8%
20% -21.0% 40% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$326 vs −$2,950 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,191
Realized−$1,786
Unrealized+$209
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$951
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 84¢ $489 $700 +$211 (+43%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $493 $491 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $500 +$164 +33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$38 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$41 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,000 −$2,950 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,000 +$1,061 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $500 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $664 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $500 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $500 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $500 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,000 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $500 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,000 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,191.13 · official $1,191.13 (match) · 13 history records