Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe078…0de5 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$432 (+2%) realized +$581 · open −$149
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$914per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$197
other 23% +$525
sports 13% −$1,788
crypto 12% −$44
politics 0% −$100
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -92.1% -92.9% 0% 0% -88.3%
≤30d 9 -75.9% -78.2% 11% 11% -23.2%
≤90d 25 -45.4% -50.6% 28% 24% -16.2%
all 25 -45.4% -50.6% 28% 24% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 24% -16.2%
10% -55.4% 20% -24.2%
15% -59.7% 12% -31.6%
20% -63.6% 8% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$762) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$244 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage56d
Avg bet$914
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA $150 $1 −$149 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6,863 −$192 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $67 −$50 -75%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$70 -70%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $537 −$512 -95%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $419 −$401 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,909 +$869 +46%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $1,167 −$1,106 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $1,190 −$851 -72%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? May 13 $222 −$115 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $274 +$568 +207%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $762 +$966 +127%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $1,337 −$452 -34%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $622 +$178 +29%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $817 +$85 +10%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $198 +$35 +18%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 29 $1,024 +$236 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or higher on April 29? Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 28 $5,436 −$6 -0%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 27 $33 −$31 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA $51 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 12¢ $103 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $51 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $136 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $91 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $4,000 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $2,600 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $2,987 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,043 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $12 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $960 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $732 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $82 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $1,014 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $22 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1,000 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? SELL No $7 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.79 (match) · 259 history records