Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E0 0xe078…cec5 sports 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$97 · open −$97
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$17
14 days−$51
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$136
sports 4% −$21
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +142.8% +119.7% 12% 12% -24.5%
≤30d 11 +76.6% +59.8% 9% 9% -49.7%
≤90d 11 +76.6% +59.8% 9% 9% -49.7%
all 11 +76.6% +59.8% 9% 9% -49.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +59.8% 9% -49.7%
10% +44.5% 9% -54.5%
15% +30.5% 9% -58.9%
20% +17.7% 9% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$14 · ×5.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$2,944
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage27d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,564 +$64 (+4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,511 $1,322 −$189 (-12%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 60¢ $30 $58 +$28 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$76 +1843%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,545 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,542 11h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 31h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia BUY 12¢ $4 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in BUY $10 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $4 14d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 27d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 27d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 11¢ $10 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,943.77 · official $2,943.77 (match) · 24 history records