Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe077…369b sports 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,224 (+1%) realized +$952 · open +$3,272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%75W / 48L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,640per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2,471est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 258d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$11,791
crypto 26% +$840
other 1% −$510
world 1% −$3,738
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +27.4% +15.3% 83% 83% +23.9%
≤30d 59 -21.5% -29.0% 49% 42% -11.0%
≤90d 59 -21.5% -29.0% 49% 42% -11.0%
all 123 -9.3% -17.9% 61% 51% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 51% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 47% -17.6%
15% -33.0% 30% -25.6%
20% -39.5% 20% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$8,824) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,740 vs −$4,174 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$19,482
Realized+$952
Unrealized+$3,272
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses75 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$2,471
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage258d
Avg bet$6,640
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 82¢ 99¢ $16,210 $19,482 +$3,272 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 29 $11,384 +$4,862 +43%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 28 $6,649 +$1,974 +30%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $4,070 +$2,626 +64%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1,240 −$1,158 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $621 +$596 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $406 +$101 +25%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $3,945 +$2,429 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $13,199 +$4,617 +35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $8,241 −$8,167 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $6,644 +$1,606 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $509 −$497 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2,117 −$2,092 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,046 −$2,580 -85%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $2,936 −$2,909 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,476 +$1,460 +99%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $3,521 −$3,467 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13,171 −$10,905 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$77 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $418 −$400 -96%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $2,527 −$2,500 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $5,449 −$180 -3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5,040 +$1,802 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,100 +$900 +82%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $6,052 −$127 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$71 -69%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$45 -86%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $2,383 +$1,300 +55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5,464 +$2,172 +40%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $13,228 +$3,712 +28%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,148 −$1,135 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $137 −$129 -94%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $12,922 +$7,665 +59%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $6,925 +$5,968 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $14 +$17 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $336 −$325 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $2,059 −$1,711 -83%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $12,626 −$10,603 -84%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $6,541 +$6,099 +93%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10,879 −$10,827 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,995 +$632 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $14,116 +$995 +7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $12,415 +$3,381 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $10,695 +$891 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $8,063 +$3,031 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,046 −$623 -60%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 5? Jun 05 $6,433 +$2,655 +41%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $4,999 +$1,465 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $16,298 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $14,072 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $20 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $13 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $17 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $396 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $495 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $769 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $198 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 99¢ $267 2h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 70¢ $494 4h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $1,380 5h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $4,140 5h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $5,370 5h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $8,527 23h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) SELL Karmine Corp 97¢ $97 24h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $2,031 25h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $983 25h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $4 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $318 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $150 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $151 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $1,816 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $443 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $404 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $306 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $13 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $13 26h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $17 26h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $6,696 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,482.16 · official $19,600.77 (match) · 1168 history records