Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E0 0xe077…f5ee sports 354 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,588 (-1%) realized −$2,552 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%156W / 194L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$545per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$2,801est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$257now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$1,613
14 days+$4,067
30 days+$3,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,062
crypto 0% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -12.5% -20.8% 49% 47% -14.3%
≤30d 255 -7.4% -16.2% 47% 46% -7.1%
≤90d 350 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 43% -11.3%
all 350 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 43% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 43% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 42% -19.8%
15% -34.0% 38% -27.5%
20% -40.5% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$832) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$480 vs −$407 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$257
Realized−$2,552
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses156 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2,801
Open positions4
Markets (closed)350 / 354
History coverage37d
Avg bet$545
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 39¢ 81¢ $54 $112 +$58 (+108%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 57¢ 56¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 55¢ 40¢ $68 $49 −$19 (-28%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $43 +$49 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $64 +$70 +109%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $63 −$62 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $65 +$77 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $957 +$478 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,520 −$1,494 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $902 −$887 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,465 +$176 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $119 −$117 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,507 +$389 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,463 +$400 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,167 +$527 +45%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,088 +$371 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $141 −$139 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,509 +$343 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,084 +$451 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,717 −$1,708 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $251 −$247 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,913 −$1,904 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,824 −$1,799 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,341 −$1,316 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,189 +$594 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $223 −$217 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,495 +$816 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,864 +$3,397 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $534 −$523 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,383 −$327 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $77 +$82 +106%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $117 +$96 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $87 +$75 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $90 +$95 +105%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $46 +$73 +158%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $76 +$77 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $82 +$68 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $86 +$66 +76%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $61 +$67 +109%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 09 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $138 $0 +0%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 09 $55 −$54 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $27 −$26 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $80 +$81 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $72 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $139 +$82 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $98 15m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 53¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $69 12h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $55 12h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $63 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $55 13h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $64 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $65 16h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $43 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $79 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 6¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $34 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $29 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $537 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $780 24h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $107 24h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 41¢ $795 24h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $89 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $85 25h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $957 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 52¢ $119 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $1,465 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $1,507 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $1,463 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $87 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $141 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $1,088 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $1,079 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.01 · official $257.03 (match) · 750 history records