Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E0 0xe075…6682 other 6 markets active 1d ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+18%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% $0
crypto 27% +$2
sports 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.3% +5.2% 80% 40% +13.1%
≤30d 5 +16.3% +5.2% 80% 40% +13.1%
≤90d 6 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 33% +3.1%
all 6 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 33% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 33% +3.1%
10% -20.7% 17% -6.8%
15% -28.4% 17% -15.8%
20% -35.4% 17% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 61d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 1¢ $1 63d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records