Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe073…25f9 weather 843 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$58 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate84%691W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day54.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$15
14 days−$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$15
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -9.3% -18.0% 75% 49% -15.6%
≤30d 378 +1.5% -8.2% 87% 44% -8.7%
≤90d 820 +0.3% -9.2% 84% 41% -10.2%
all 820 +0.3% -9.2% 84% 41% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 41% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 24% -18.8%
15% -25.9% 10% -26.6%
20% -33.1% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses691 / 129
Open positions23
Markets (closed)820 / 843
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day54.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 820 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 66¢ 100¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 90¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? No 92¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 92¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? No 71¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 84¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 66¢ 89¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 72¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? No 85¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? No 65¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? No 75¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 74¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 60¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? No 95¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? No 72¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 72¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? No 77¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 36¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? No 68¢ 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 49¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.44 · official $52.44 (match) · 3500 history records