Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E0 0xe06c…f799 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$18
politics 21% −$7
sports 6% −$10
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 6% -9.6%
all 101 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage94d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $172 $171 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $296 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $304 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $281 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $291 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $291 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $267 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $285 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 27 $291 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $288 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $267 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $271 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $290 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $265 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,127 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $570 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $583 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $553 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $560 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $295 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $298 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $297 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $301 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 22h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 26h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 45h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $78 2d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $172 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $61 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $61 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 23d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 24d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $34 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $34 26d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $117 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $54 31d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $54 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.43 · official $284.43 (match) · 297 history records