Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe06b…8aa0 crypto 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 746d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-1%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate48%198W / 215L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$14
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$107
other 14% +$3
finance 10% +$2
tech 7% +$1
sports 2% −$2
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.6% -10.9% 10% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 68 +0.6% -9.0% 35% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 174 -1.0% -10.5% 34% 5% -9.6%
all 413 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 15% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 9% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

746d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses198 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)413 / 422
History coverage746d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 70¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $123 −$9 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $902 −$2 -0%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $120 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 02 $1 $0 +36%
Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $135 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +14%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $119 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 30 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1 $0 -10%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $114 1h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 2d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $82 2d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $15 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $1 4d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 4d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.79 · official $145.79 (match) · 1110 history records